Arencibia hits two HR's in debut to fuel Jays win over Rays

Baseball Betting Lines

08/07/2010 - Toronto, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - J.P. Arencibia had a major-league debut to remember, going 4-for-5 with two home runs, a double and three RBI, as the Toronto Blue Jays belted eight home runs en route to a 17-11 drubbing of the Rays, handing Tampa Bay a season-high fourth straight loss.

Arencibia, a first-round pick by Toronto in the 2007 draft, belted 31 homers in Triple-A Las Vegas this year before getting brought up earlier this week due to an injury to All-Star catcher John Buck (thumb). The 24-year-old backstop hit a two-run homer on the first pitch he saw in the second inning and added a solo blast in the sixth.

The rookie highlighted a barrage of long balls by the hosts, including two from Aaron Hill and one each from Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind, Lyle Overbay and league-leader Jose Bautista in Toronto's fourth win in five games.

Tampa Bay's James Shields (10-10) allowed nine hits -- six homers -- and four walks while yielding eight runs in four innings to snap a personal three-start winning streak. Dan Johnson went 2-for-2 with a homer and four RBI in defeat.

The Blue Jays set a season-high for runs and hits (20) and put on a home run display to extend its 3-2 lead in the third. Lind and Hill opened the inning with shots over the right and left field fences, respectively, and Encarnacion pulled an outside pitch to left for another round-tripper two batters later.

Bautista smashed his MLB-best 34th bomb leading off the fourth, and Hill barely cleared the left-field wall later in the frame to notch his third career multi-homer game.

Toronto starter Brad Mills was pulled after walking B.J. Upton in the fifth with the bases loaded, and the Rays got two more runs in the inning on a Johnson sacrifice fly and Evan Longoria groundout off Brian Tallet (2-4), who got credit for the win for throwing three innings of relief.

Dale Thayer mercifully relieved Shields in the home half and was just as ineffective. The Jays pushed across five runs with two outs, starting with Vernon Wells' bases-loaded infield single and capping it with consecutive two- run hits by Lind and Hill.

Arencibia put the finishing touches on his prolific arrival with an opposite- field shot to right in the sixth, leading to a curtain call from the Rogers Centre crowd.

Overbay topped Johnson's two-run homer in the seventh with a three-run blast in Toronto's half.

The Blue Jays failed to score in the eighth, the only frame in which they were blanked. The Rays plated four in the ninth on a Reid Brignac sac fly, a Travis Snider error on the same play, a Gabe Kapler double and a Willy Aybar groundout.

Yunel Escobar's RBI double in the first inning and Arencibia's first-pitch, two-run homer in the second were countered by run-scoring hits from Upton and Johnson in the third frame.

Game Notes

Bautista has homered in 10 straight series, tying a Blue Jays record set by Carlos Delgado (2001)...Arencibia became the first player since Boston's Daniel Nava (6/12/2010) to hit a home run on his first pitch in the big leagues...The Blue Jays currently lead the majors with 175 homers this season, 30 more than the Red Sox going into their game against the Yankees...Mills, recalled from Las Vegas to take the rotation spot of the injured Jesse Litsch (hip), surrendered five hits, four walks and five runs over four-plus frames in his second start this season...Escobar, Encarnacion and Hill each had three hits for the Blue Jays...Johnson's homer was his first since September 15, 2008.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

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MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

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In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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