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09/08/2010 - Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A much-anticipated matchup between the second- ranked Ohio State Buckeyes and the 12th-ranked Miami-Florida Hurricanes will ensue in Columbus on Saturday afternoon.
As expected, Miami cruised to victory over Florida A&M in the opener, besting the overmatched Rattlers by a 45-0 final. The Hurricanes played that game on Thursday, September 2nd, so they have had just as much time as the Buckeyes to prepare for this week's showdown. Miami was a program in despair when Randy Shannon took over four years ago, but the well-regarded coach has restored the 'Canes to respectability. In 2009, Shannon guided his team to the program's best mark since the 2005 at 9-4, including 5-3 versus ACC competition.
"Games are games, and they go and come," said Shannon, failing to buy into the hype of this showdown. "You just have to enjoy the times you play in them and keep moving on."
As for Ohio State, it cruised to a 45-7 victory over Marshall last Thursday to kick off a campaign full of lofty expectations.
"It's going to be a more difficult world next week," Ohio State coach Jim Tressel said, acknowledging the spike in competition that Miami represents.
The Buckeyes are now 10-0 in season openers under Tressel, and they have won 55 consecutive regular season non-conference home games against unranked teams. They are one of just three teams to post 10 or more wins in five consecutive seasons and are loaded on both sides of the ball this year.
Ohio State has won two of the three all-time meetings with Miami, including a thrilling victory in 2003 that decided the national championship.
Many believe that Miami's fortunes this season rest solely on the arm and legs of quarterback Jacory Harris. If the opener is any indication, the 'Canes are in for a successful campaign. Against Florida A&M, Harris connected on 12- of-15 passes for 210 yards and three touchdowns.
Senior Leonard Hankerson caught six passes for 115 yards and a career-best two touchdowns for the Hurricanes, while Damien Berry also caught a TD pass. Lamar Miller carried the ball 11 times for 65 yards and a score for Miami, which also got a rushing touchdown from Mike James.
"Individually, we had some guys who did a lot of great things out there today," Miami coach Randy Shannon said. "For the most part, it shows what kind of team we have."
Defensively, Miami was simply dominant against Florida A&M, allowing just 110 yards in the clash. The run defense was stifling, holding the Rattlers to 52 yards on 39 attempts. Clearly, a high total of eight sacks amounting to 62 yards in losses was a major factor in the impressive stats. Olivier Vernon was downright unstoppable, as the sophomore defensive end posted 3.5 sacks in the tilt. He also finished with seven total tackles to lead the 'Canes. Miami came up with just one takeaway, but the most important number of all from that contest is zero, the amount of points scored by the opposition.
Ohio State racked up 529 total yards in the romp over Marshall in the opener, and there was tremendous balance established between the run and the pass. The Buckeyes posted 280 rushing yards at a clip of 6.8 yards per carry, and Brandon Saine posted 103 yards on just nine carries with two touchdowns.
As for the passing game, Terrelle Pryor looked the part of a Heisman candidate. The junior signal caller, who is under constant scrutiny, completed 17-of-25 passes for 247 yards and three touchdowns with zero interceptions. DeVier Posey scored on two of his four catches, and Dane Sanzenbacher posted 113 yards and a score on three grabs.
Defensively, Ohio State played quite well against Marshall, limiting the Thundering Herd to 199 total yards, including 44 rushing yards. The only points scored by Marshall came on a return of a blocked field goal, so that play obviously can't be pinned on the defense, which is considered one of the nation's most talented groups.
Linebacker Brian Rolle is one of the stars of the Ohio State defense, and he returned an interception 30 yards for a touchdown. He quickly turned his attention to the Hurricanes after that tilt.
"You get the feeling that team feels like they're back on the rise like they were in the early 2000s," said Brian Rolle of Miami. "We've got to play our brand of football, and at the end of the game next week we'll be able to assess where we are."
<< Ranked SEC foes lock horns in Columbia
Columbia, SC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mark Richt leads his 22nd-ranked Georgia
Bulldogs into an SEC battle with Steve Spurrier's 24th-ranked South Carolina
Gamecocks in Columbia this weekend.
"Our guys are focused on South Carolina right now," sai
<< Tigers battle Bulldogs in SEC action
Starkville, MS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - SEC action begins on Thursday in Starkville
as the Mississippi State Bulldogs welcome the 21st-ranked Auburn Tigers to
town.
Auburn opened its season last weekend with a 52-26 victory over Arkansas
State.
<< Struggling Braves turn to Lowe in finale with Pirates
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Pittsburgh Pirates sure have been enjoying their role
of spoiler in this series and are now in position to sweep the Atlanta Braves
for the first time in over 16 years.
To do that they will have to solve Derek Lowe, wh
<< First-place Phils close out hard-fought set with Marlins
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It wasn't easy, but the Philadelphia Phillies now lead the
National League East for the first time since late May.
Cole Hamels will try to keep his squad there as he aims for a third straight
victory in the finale of a fou
Instate rivals clash as ninth-ranked Hawkeyes take on Cyclones >>
Iowa City, IA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bitter rivals clash at Kinnick Stadium this
weekend, as the ninth-ranked Iowa Hawkeyes do battle with the Iowa State
Cyclones.
The Hawkeyes took care of business in their opener last weekend, as they
tallied
13th-ranked Hokies seek quick turnaround against Dukes >>
Blacksburg, VA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coming off a heart-breaking loss, the 13th-
ranked Virginia Tech Hokies now set their sights on the James Madison Dukes
this weekend at Lane Stadium.
In the most anticipated game of the opening week, it was
Fireworks likely in showdown between Ducks and Volunteers >>
Knoxville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coming off perhaps the most impressive
performance in week one of the 2010 college football season, the seventh-
ranked Oregon Ducks take to the road, as they invade SEC Country to battle the
Tennessee Volunteer
Yellow Jackets and Jayhawks square off in Lawrence >>
Lawrence, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 15th-ranked Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
take their act on the road for the first time this season, as they invade
Lawrence this weekend, for a showdown with the Kansas Jayhawks in an ACC/Big
XII non-conferenc
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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