Idaho hits road for test against No. 6 Nebraska

NCAA Football Betting Lines

09/08/2010 - Lincoln, NE (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Fresh off a 49-10 thrashing of Western Kentucky in last week's season opener, the sixth-ranked Nebraska Cornhuskers figure to be challenged a bit more this Saturday as they welcome the Idaho Vandals to Memorial Stadium in Lincoln.

The Vandals are also 1-0 on the young season, having disposed of visiting North Dakota last week in a 45-0 final. It was the first time since 1998 that Idaho opened a season at home, and the first time they posted a shutout since 1997. The Vandals are coming off a 2009 campaign (8-5) in which they produced the second-best turnaround in the country -- they went just 2-10 in 2008.

As for the hometown Huskers, they scored early and often last week against the Hilltoppers to post their 25th straight season-opening victory -- the longest active streak in the nation. All 25 wins have come by double figures. WKU has now lost 21 consecutive games -- the nation's longest current losing streak.

A win here is important for the Cornhuskers, who travel to the Pacific Northwest next week to take on Pac-10 foe Washington. The Big 12 Conference slate, Nebraska's swan song as it will move to the Big Ten next season, will offer plenty of potential pitfalls, although the Huskers are fortunate to get Texas at home and miss Oklahoma all-together -- save for a potential meeting in the Big 12 title game.

This bout marks the first-ever meeting between Idaho and Nebraska on the gridiron.

Idaho started off slowly in last week's clash with North Dakota, but the floodgates opened soon enough and when the dust had settled the Vandals had piled up 547 yards of total offense and 45 unanswered points. QB Nathan Enderle went 24-of-37 for 311 yards with a pair of TDs and one INT. He hit Daniel Hardy four times for 82 yards and Armauni Johnson three times for a game-high 86 yards and a TD. Princeton McCarty was UI's leading ground gainer with 89 yards and two scores on 12 carries.

Idaho scored on all four trips to the red zone, while North Dakota came up empty on its two visits.

Defensively, the Vandals got huge games from Tre'Shawn Robinson and Shiloh Keo, the former logging nine tackles and the latter coming up with eight stops, a forced fumble, a fumble recovery and an interception.

North Dakota finished with just 270 yards of total offense, with the pass yielding a mere 122 yards on 35 attempts. Five Fighting Sioux turnovers played a huge role in the outcome, as did the fact that the Vandals stood tall on third down, permitting just 3-of-13 chances to be converted successfully.

"As a whole," said Keo, "offensive and defensively, we were kind of slow in the beginning. But, at the end of the day, we came and did what we wanted to do. The offense moved the ball consistently and our defense held in there and we made some big plays and got the ball back to the offense."

Nebraska redshirt freshman QB Taylor Martinez made quite an impression in his first collegiate start last week against Western Kentucky, rushing for 127 yards and three TDs to power the Cornhuskers to their 39-point victory. He is the first freshman in school history to start the season opener, and was also effective in the passing game, hitting 9-of-15 attempts for 136 yards without a turnover.

NU head coach Bo Pelini was relatively happy with his rookie signal-caller's first game, "I thought Taylor did a nice job running the ball. He made some explosive plays and did some really good things. I thought he managed the football team well. I thought he threw it well and was pretty efficient. I thought for his first start he did a nice job."

Niles Paul was the team's leading receiver in the game, pulling down five balls for 92 yards and a TD, while the ground assault generated 289 yards and six TDs. In all, the NU offense amassed 536 yards on an average of 9.2 yards per play.

The 'Blackshirts', as the Nebraska defense has come to be known, allowed the Hilltoppers a mere 299 yards and just 10 points -- all scored in the second half. They were particularly tough against the pass (120 yards, zero TDs).

Lavonte David led all defenders in the game with 13 tackles, while P.J. Smith (INT) and Eric Hagg (fumble recovery) came up with the team's two turnovers.

Despite dominating the overmatched Hilltoppers, coach Pelini was not pleased with his defense's performance, "I thought overall defensively, I thought it was an absolute embarrassment. I thought it was coached poorly, that starts with me. I don't like anything we did defensively. There were a couple of things we did OK, but we did not play up to our standard."

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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