Time to take the danger zone out of Pocono

Autoracing Betting Lines

08/02/2010 - Long Pond, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Track officials at Pocono Raceway might have breathed a sigh of relief after Elliott Sadler walked away from one of the most vicious accidents in NASCAR history, but it's now evident that safety improvements must be made at the track to avoid a potentially fatal incident.

With 36 laps remaining in Sunday's 500-mile race at Pocono, Jimmie Johnson tapped Kurt Busch from behind. Busch hit the outside wall, slid down the track and then spun on the wet, grassy area along the backstretch before plowing into the inside guardrail. It had rained at Pocono prior to the start of the race.

Sadler, who won the inaugural Truck Series race at Pocono on Saturday, got caught up in the accident when he was hit from behind, as he was slowing down to avoid hitting Busch. Sadler slammed head-on into the guardrail after sliding on the grass at a high speed.

The impact was so severe that it stripped the engine and driveshaft from Sadler's car onto the grass and track surface. Sadler gingerly climbed out of his car and then laid down next to it, as track and medical officials quickly attended to him. Both Busch and Sadler were later released from the track's infield care center.

"Somebody just ran into the back of me and turned me inside through the wet grass into the guardrail, so I was along for the ride," Sadler said. "It was a very hard hit. I'm a little sore through my chest and my stomach, but that's from where the seatbelts did their job and grabbed me and kept me in the car, so I'm thankful for that."

Thank NASCAR for Sadler leaving the accident unscathed.

Since Dale Earnhardt's fatal crash in the 2001 Daytona 500, NASCAR continuously has improved the safety of the sport. The current car (car of tomorrow), the Head and Neck Support (HANS) device and the Steel and Foam Energy Reduction (SAFER) barrier, also known as the "soft wall," have all reduced the potential for serious injuries during a crash.

What has been an issue for Pocono is that the 2.5-mile triangular track does not have SAFER barriers installed along the inside area of the backstretch, where many horrifying accidents have occurred in the past.

When the Sprint Cup Series competed at Pocono in June, a nine-car pileup occurred on the final lap when A.J. Allmendinger shoved his teammate, Kasey Kahne, down the track and into the grass. Kahne's car got airborne after he shot up the track and then slammed hard into the wall.

In July 2002, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Steve Park crashed spectacularly on the backstretch. Park's car did several barrel rolls on the grass before smashing into the guardrail. NASCAR stopped the race for more than one hour, as track officials repaired the barrier.

Following Kahne's crash at Pocono, some drivers, particularly Greg Biffle, have criticized the track for its lack of efforts to improve safety.

Biffle ended a 46-race winless streak and gave Ford its first victory of the season at Pocono.

"It's dangerous to have grass next to where you're running 200 miles an hour; that's all there is to it," Biffle said during his post-race news conference. "Talladega and Daytona had that same issue, and they added pavement, like a skid pad, whatever you want to call it, so when the car gets out of control, gets going that direction, you still have some control.

"Once you hit the grass, especially with it wet or dry, it's going to make it a little different. If you hit the grass wet, you're along for the ride. It feels like you pick up speed actually when you get into the wet grass."

Biffle was very outspoken against Pocono during a Sports Illustrated interview last month. He told the magazine, "They're going to kill somebody there."

In response to recent criticisms, Pocono track president Brandon Igdalsky, who is the grandson of track owners Joseph and Rose Mattioli, confirmed the facility will undergo modifications to improve safety, including the installation of SAFER barriers where needed, in time for the series' next race there, which is expected to be in June 2011. NASCAR anticipates releasing its schedule for next year in the coming days.

Pocono immediately planned on making changes to the track following Kahne's incident two months ago. However, Igdalsky noted that it was not possible to complete all modifications in time for Pocono's second date this season.

"Talking with the guys at the racetrack this [past weekend], they obviously have a great plan as to fixing the walls and upgrading the catch fences and all those things," current Sprint Cup points leader Kevin Harvick said. "With seven weeks in between the races, it was hard to put that plan into place in between these two races. It's a huge undertaking for the racetrack to spend the amount of money that they're going to spend with the upgrades they're going to have, and I'm glad to see that they have a plan to do that."

Let's hope Pocono indeed improves their safety initiatives, so we don't have an unforeseeable tragedy.

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Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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Marlins could start season without No. 2 starter Johnson

JUPITER, Fla. -- The Foorida Marlins are preparing for the likelihood that right-hander
Josh Johnson won't be ready when the season starts April 2.

Grapefruit League action starts Wednesday, but Johnson, penciled in as the No. 2 starter, hasn't even thrown off a mound at full speed since September. He's experienced some soreness in his right forearm.

MySportsbook.com have the Marlins listed with baseball betting lines at +800 to win the NL East this season .

''You guys know the math. If he's not on the hill then he becomes an opening day roster issue,'' manager Fredi Gonzalez said Saturday. ''We're borderline now.''

Johnson, who finished 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA in 2007, was supposed to throw on flat ground Saturday. That was canceled when he woke up with pain.

He played catch on Wednesday with no pain but felt discomfort in a throwing session on Thursday. He's expected to try again Sunday.

''Like we always said from the very beginning, we're going to take it easy on him,'' Gonzalez said. ''He didn't feel right, so we shut him down. We're going to take it back to step one and see where we're at.''

Among the candidates to take Johnson's spot in the rotation are left-hander Chris George and right-handers Yusmeiro Petit and Jose Garcia.

Right-hander Sergio Mitre, who missed most of last season with arm and shoulder problems, also is behind.

With Johnson's status doubtful, Gonzalez said right-hander Ricky Nolasco will stay in the rotation and no longer will be considered a candidate for closer.

Additional basbeall odds can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com

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