Hard times hit United after Open Cup setback

Soccer Betting Lines

09/02/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.C. United hit rock bottom Wednesday. The most storied franchise in Major League Soccer history was already on the verge of their worst season in history, and it got even worse with their U.S. Open Cup exit.

That D.C. United lost again was not a surprise - that's what they've done this year. How United lost, interim manager Ben Olsen said after a 2-1, extra- time loss to the Columbus Crew was "cruel."

United took a one-goal lead into the final minutes of the Open Cup semifinals, holding onto an early lead despite an ejection of goal scorer Pablo Hernandez, when Marc Burch scored into his own net with one minute left in regulation.

Columbus added a second goal eight minutes into extra time, and United dropped out of the competition just seconds short of another finals appearance. It was a tough loss, would have been for any team, but even more so for this one.

United has won four games this year in MLS through 22 matches. Yes, four. That equals the number of championships the team has won in league's first 14 years in existence.

"This season has been abysmal," United's Santino Quaranta said, "and [the Open Cup] was the only thing we had going for us."

Until the last minute Wednesday night.

Burch's own goal erased a chance for D.C. to return to the U.S. Open Cup final for the third straight year. The last two years, the once-proud club failed to make the MLS playoffs, but thrived in the Open Cup tournament.

United won the U.S. Open Cup two seasons ago, and lost in the final to Seattle Sounders FC last year. Now, United will watch Seattle defend its title against Columbus next month.

D.C. will have to turn its focus solely to MLS, where over the last eight games of the season, it will try to avoid accumulating a number of records no team wants.

United, 4-14-3, could overtake the 2001 Tampa Bay Mutiny for the worst year in league history if it loses its last eight games. Tampa Bay went 4-23-3 and had a .185 winning percentage. D.C. could finish with a .183 winning percentage.

United has been shut out 14 times in league play, just one off the record. With 15 goals so far in the league - or only two more than MLS scoring leader Edson Buddle of the Los Angeles Galaxy - D.C. needs 10 goals to avoid the lowest sum ever in a single-season.

"We'll keep pushing, somehow regroup," Olsen said Wednesday, "then start again on the weekend."

United returns to MLS action Saturday against Columbus, then visits Toronto FC and Los Angeles. Houston, Colorado, San Jose, Chicago and another game against Toronto wraps up the schedule.

Olsen, who helped United to its MLS Cup titles in 1998 and 2004, can only hope to start building the foundation for the team's next boss. Olsen replaced Curt Onalfo earlier this season, but isn't considered a candidate for the full-time job.

D.C.'s fall, which has happened over the last few seasons, can be traced to a number of bad roster decisions, including trading ex-MLS Defender of the Year Bobby Boswell to Houston in 2007.

Boswell was shipped out for backup goalie Zach Wells (who retired in 2009 when he was just 29), and then the signings of five South Americans last offseason, including Marcelo Gallardo, failed to produce much for the club. None of those players are still in D.C.

Before this season, United traded Brazilian midfielder Fred, a first-round pick and allocation money to the Philadelphia Union to acquire the right to ex-D.C. goalie Troy Perkins, who returned to the league following a stint in Europe.

Perkins has allowed nearly two goals a game in 15 starts and lost his starting spot to rookie Bill Hamid.

After reaching the MLS Cup in the first four years the league existed and with wins in three of those finals, United hit a tough stretch from 2000-2002. D.C. returned to the playoffs for the following five seasons, meaning there is some hope the current three-year slide is just another rough patch.

However, United's attendance has slipped below 15,000 for the first time ever. It now seems that the word "TRADITION" - proudly displayed below the collar on the back of their jerseys - is all the club has right now.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.